For years people, particularly in the Middle East and Africa have accepted living in a world without democracy. This has given rise to presidency for life. The Tunisian president Zinedine Ben Ali ruled for 23 years, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt for 30 years. Yemen’s president, Ali Abdella Saleh has been in power for nearly 32 years. Isaias was in power more than 40 years, 19 years as a president of the Nation. When the Al Gezzira correspondent asked him when he will hold an election. He said “what election”. The journalist said, “The election supposed to take place at the end of 2001 in Eritrea? He said after a decade or two may be never.

The case of PM Meles Zenawi is unusual in that, it is the first time in history that a guerrilla government paved the way for smooth transition of power. PM Meles Zenawi has put time table for his own departure. Most of the Government members did not run for election during the last election an indication that the process would be completed in the next general election of Ethiopia during which Meles won’t run.

What made Isaias uniquely vicious is not that he is a dictator but he has denied the right of the Eritrean Youth to exploit their potential for education, work, creativity, happiness and a family.  The national service which was 6 months military training and 12 months to give free service in economic and social activities has been extended to an indefinite period which reduced the entire young generation to a life of servitude and an uncertain future.

Revolution of the People:  The uprising in Tunisia and Egypt has created a new political reality on the ground.

The successful mass uprising that took place in Tunisia was sparked when Mohamed Bouaziz a 26 years old unemployed college graduate put himself on fire. On January 17 President Ben Ali who ruled the country for 23 years fled the country to Saudi Arabia.

On January 25 the people in Egypt staged a massive peaceful demonstration.  The police tried to stop them by throwing tear gas. The young protesters, their faces flushed, their eyes and noses streaming with tears and mucus were undeterred. They were singing “Mubarak must go! The people want the regime to fall”. They have bravely demonstrated their power, peoples’ power.
 
The day the uprising started in Cairo, the police were beating the demonstrators.  By evening the feared police had fled the streets, routed by the sheer numbers pouring off Qasar al-Nile to seize Tahrir Square.

Soon, a strange dynamic developed as the army roared onto the streets for the first time in armoured personnel carriers.  They were welcomed with cheers by the demonstrators, who considered the police as an arm of the regime, while the soldiers are seen as the “sons of the nation”.
The peoples’ revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt have managed to build the foundations of a new world view which will eventually lead into a new secular democratic world order.  

The despotic governments in the Middle East and Africa were shaken.  The president of Yemen Ali Abdullah promised that he would not seek another term in office or he will not hand power to his son. The king of Jordan changed his entire cabinet. There was some unrest in the Sudan, in Jordan and Syria. These revolutions had dominated the world news media.

How about the Eritrean media:

Eritrean Television (TV-ERI), the powerful media of disinformation in the hands of PFDJ has maintained total silence. PFDJ has sensed its influenced and its impact on the Eritrean population. The PFDJ is quite fearful of what is going on in these countries.

 No doubt PFDJ do understand the power of the people. In 1989 EPLF has disbanded the mass association in case it evolves into civil society independent of the government. It had a chance of becoming the pillar of democracy.  It is the fear of the youth that made PFDJ close the University. It is out of fear that the president had abandoned the well prepared demobilization programme presented to international donors and Embassies at the chamber of Commerce on September 11, 2001. At the launch President Isaias Afewerki was present and even gave a key note speech of his commitment to demobilisation.  The donors were generous they pledged $125,000.000 million US with some embassies wanted to consult their governments first.  

The opposition websites and radios reported the uprising with passion.  Most of the writing welcomed the moves that would end the era of dictatorship in the Middle East and Africa. They indicated that the fate of President Isaias is bound to be the same. All these dramas in Tunisia and Egypt have ringed a bell, playing music to the ears of the Eritreans.

But some in the opposition don’t believe that the people have power.  They don’t believe that Eritreans can overthrow the dictator unless the tanks of Ethiopia roles down to Eritrea.  One of the proponents of this is Yosief Gebrehiwot, the most celebrated writer in the Diaspora website.  

The most enlightening debate was during the interview of Amanuel Iyasu of Assenna.com with Dr. Asefaw Tekeste and Dr. Anghesom Atsbaha.

Dr. Asefaw has implied that it may be difficult to change the regime by coming out to the streets but the people can change the regime in another form. He said there are always other means in the hands of the people when they decide to act.

Dr. Anghesom focused on the myths perpetuated by the supporters and the need to demystify them. He dwelt on the two issues. One is the myth that the people love the president. Second is the myth that anyone who dares to challenge the president has no hope to survive, PFDJ is just too powerful.

Dr. Anghesom is of the belief that this must be demystified. The reality to-day is that the people don’t love the Government.  However, the fear factor still persists not only in Eritrea but in the Diaspora as well. The second is PFDJ is not strong and can not sustain any powerful pressure from the people for change. He attributed the strength of PFDJ to the weakness of the opposition.

Dr. Anghesom said that the opposition organisations instead of directing their energies against the repressive regime, they are more in the business of attacking each other.

Never underestimate the power of the people.

Yosief Gebrehiwot in his article dated 26-01- 2011 at Asmarino.com titled “Why the Tunisian Revolution can not be replicated in Eritrea” has miserably failed to see that people have the power they don’t realize they have.
 
The problem is lack of awareness. The people are not conscious of the fact that they are more powerful than their oppressors.  This fact represents a challenge to the Civil Societies, the need to empowering the people is deemed to be profoundly important.  

This issue of empowerment was adequately covered by   Seyoum Tesfaye in his article titled, “The wrong Question and the Wrong Prescription” in response to Yosief’s article.  I quote,

“The time has come for the non-violent advocates in Diaspora to pull their minds, skills and resources together and do everything to empower Eritreans inside the country so they can be the primary owners of the Eritrean Revolution. That is the call of the day.”

I like the term inside the country: Seyoum has hit the nail on the head. It is Eritreans that would shape the future of Eritrea like they did in the past. At the centre of the activities of the civil societies, is to raise the level of consciousness of the Eritrean people by pointing to the fact that they are capable of bringing about change. That doesn’t mean that they should not seek support from Ethiopia or from anywhere else that sympathises with the people of Eritrea who are subjected to extreme repression by their own government.

On September 18, 2001 the PFDJ has sown the seeds of its own destruction:

There are two sides to a story of regimes taking drastic action to control the people by force. One side is that in that moment in time they do consolidate their power. The other side is, they saw the seeds of their own destruction.  Likewise on September 18, 2001 when the Isaias Government banned private papers imprisoned the Government officials (G15) who were pro reform, the elders who wanted to mediate he was able to nip in the bud the movement for  democracy.  At the same time the PFDJ   had sown the seeds of its own destruction.  It needs time to sprout and flower, otherwise its downfall is eminent.

In the absence of freedom of association, freedom to form political parties and independent civil societies inside Eritrea, the Diaspora opposition parties can play as a catalyst to unseat the PFDJ Government. However, they are   faced with two tremendous tasks. Firstly, they have to provide politically credible challenges to the PFDJ government particularly ideological challenge. PFDJ has reshaped the country more fundamentally than anytime in the past, corruption has become endemic; trust among each other has been eroded.  Secondly they have to win over the people and people can be won over if they can relate to them and their objectives.

To be continued