Is Something Happening In Asmara?

President Isaias Afewerki can call himself whatever he wants, even president.  Without an election, with a never-used constitution gathering dust, without an elective assembly, it’s just all Isaias all the time.

He has fought with everyone around, including Ethiopia, Yemen, Djibouti and Sudan.

The US has an ambassador in Asmara  but after two years his credentials have still not been received. His tour will end soon, probably this way.

But are things starting to change?  Are Isaias’ backers getting tired of their cranky, isolated and and useless ally? These include Libya, Qatar (possibly representing other Gulf leaders who prefer to stay anonymous), Iran, maybe a shout out from North Korea.  Not an A-list group.

As Israeli diplomat Abba Eban used to say about the Palestinians (and could say about Israel itself today), Eritrea ‘never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity’ to be smart.

After his monumental blunder of attacking Ethiopia in 1998, Isaias accepted a ceasefire to stop Ethiopia’s counterattack from penetrating deeper into Eritrea. Being much wilier than the Ethiopians, Eritrea negotiated a favorable ceasefire (Algiers, 2000) and in 2002 got a favorable ruling from the Boundary Commission in the Hague.  Eritrea accepted the ruling but Ethiopia, which had committed in writing to doing so, rejected it and still rejects it.

This gave Eritrea the moral high ground and international sympathy, which it soon threw away.  Isaias made enemies instead, abandoning the diplomatic skills that for years had won his rebel movement so much admiration.

He has now thrown out almost all foreign aid and humanitarian assistance groups, despite reports of severe child malnutrition and a crippled economy.  Thousands flee Eritrea every year, particularly military age youth (service can  last for decades).  There are thousands in a camp in Ethiopia, where they don’t want to be — the bitter legacy of a century of colonialism and imperialism that divided a once culturally continuous region. Growing numbers are being admitted to the US.  Four faiths are officially tolerated in Eritrea: traditional Orthodox, Roman Catholics (Italian colonialism), Evangelican Lutherans (a missionary relic) and Islam. All others are harassed, or worse — abused, jailed, sometimes dying in roasting metal shipping containers in the desert sun.

The UN claims that Eritrea has been helping the Islamists in Somalia in a proxy war against Ethiopia.  Eritrea denies it, but it is hard to imagine that there is no fire with all that smoke.  Last December, the UN approved sanctions against Eritrea.

Did the sanctions stir a change of policy in Asmara by underscoring Eritrea’s isolation?  Are his sponsors, who are probably keeping Eritrea afloat — Qatar in particular — urging him to wise up? Eritrea makes most foreign investors feel unwelcome except for the recent interest from mining companies.  Light manufacturing, which could take advantage of Eritrea’s capable workforce, is not in the cards. Modern mines need few and mostly skilled labor and are easier to isolate than factories that hire many low wage workers and are located in towns.

Is Isaias is seeing the handwriting on the wall?  An Eritrean minister just gave an interview to VOA…a true rarity. Even more important, Eritrea accepted mediation (from the Gulf) to end its pointless but irritating military occupation of a narrow strip of sand in Djibouti. Statements about Somalia, though still hostile to Ethiopia and the US, are now no more aimless than those from other governments.

Is opposition growing inside Eritrea, invisible to outsiders but not to his intelligence sources?  Little word gets out so it isn’t easy to tell.  Is the food shortage so ominous that he has no choice but to consider opening up to the outside?  Is Eritrea’s poor reputation making it harder for the mining companies to raise the hundreds of millions needed to develop the gold mines that are the only economic hope on the horizon?

Is Isaias now realizing the error of his ways?  Or does he see a growing threat from his inner circle, which must be aware of Eritrea’s true condition and international reputation? He isn’t likely to survive an overthrow and has few choices for asylum.

For now this is all highly speculative. Yet hints and intuition suggest that something could be happening in Eritrea.  The Eritrean people deserve better than they have gotten for the past two decades.