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Wikileaks on Eritrea: New Stuff

Introduction:

This is the latest in Wikileaks on Eritrea. Some of it gives more information on already leaked data and some of it is entirely new. It starts chronologically from 2007, and goes all the way to 2010. Below is part of the report: in some cases, we are posting it partially; in others, all of it; and, in some others, we haven't posted it at all. For anyone who wants to read the full report, we have provided all the links at the end.

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26/10/2007

SUBJECT: ASMARA ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT: MORE DETAILS EMERGE

6. (S) Fikre reportedly died in jail on October 8. The family requested an autopsy be completed prior to his burial, protesting that Fikre had been young and healthy when entering the jail only a few days earlier. An Eritrean contact told Poloff that only President Isaias, Colonel Ghebredenghil and Commander Tekle received copies of the autopsy report. Despite never having done his mandatory national service, Fikre received a hero´s burial and was laid to rest in Asmara´s Martyr´s Cemetery on October 12. The funeral became a city-wide event. One witness commented that attendance at Fikre´s funeral exceeded that of the two biggest funerals since the country´s 1993 referendum - the former Foreign Minister´s funeral in 2005 and the funeral of one of the founders of the struggle in 2000. He observed that the turnout essentially represented a silent demonstration by the people, as they are unable to protest in other ways.

WHAT THE MAN ON THE STREET SAYS

9. (C) Residents of Asmara state they were aware of the shenanigans of their military officers and their corrupt business activities. For example, General Filipos Woldeyohannes (formerly head of the western Gash Barka region and now head of the Asmara region) is well-known as the "go-to" general to arrange an escape to Sudan. Many Eritreans regularly gossip about the homes which have been appropriated from civilians and given to military or government officials, or about the foreign travel of the officers´ families. As the details about corruption in the military become public, Poloff has heard a common refrain that "it is about time" these activities have come under public scrutiny. Many Eritrean observers believe that this incident will begin to crack the iron grip ofPresident Isaias and his military officials over the government and the people of Eritrea. One high-ranking government official told Emboff, "Thank goodness. Now maybe things will change for the better."

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08/07/2008

SUBJECT: IS ISAIAS UNHINGED?

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen

1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: A well-connected businessman of Eritrean origin claims that President Isaias Afwerki is mentally ill and that his disastrous governance is generating concern among powerful actors within the Eritrean establishment. The businessman predicts Isaias will attempt to appease popular and elite discontent by axing one or more high-profile regime insiders in coming months, but that this will not provide a solution to Eritrea´s woes. He foresees senior military and/or party leaders moving to oust or sideline Isaias within a year. END SUMMARY.

2. (S/NF) MISLED OR MENTALLY UNBALANCED?

A wealthy dual-national businessman met with the ambassador in early July to discuss Eritrea´s economic and political situation. He said that as President Isaias makes all decisions, even on a quotidian level, a discussion of politics and economics must focus on Isaias. He opined that many of the decisions taken by Isaias recently are contrary to the regime´s own self-interest, leading the businessman to wonder whether Isaias is somehow being misled by his inner circle or if he is mentally unbalanced. The source noted that Isaias´ manic behavior has become worse in the last year with his heavy drinking bouts, violent eruptions of temper, paranoia so severe he rarely talks on the telephone, and his total intolerance of disagreement or dissent.

3. (S/NF) A GROWING THREAT TO THE REGIME AND COUNTRY

The widespread deprivations experienced by the Eritrean population are viewed by many as a direct result of decisions taken by Isaias. Heretofore, however, popular pride in Eritrea´s independence and fear of Ethiopian irredentism have combined to shield Isaias and his regime from mass discontent arising from economic mismanagement and horrendous human rights abuses. That may be changing, the source stated, as widespread hunger and lack of hope for a better life are beginning to cause people to listen to their stomachs, rather than their heads or hearts. Powerful actors within the regime, he continued, believe that the scale has tipped against Isaias and are discussing changes that would preserve the status quo by ousting Isaias or diluting his power.

4. (S/NF) THE ARMY AND THE PARTY

The businessman discussed and dismissed a number of potential sources of political change in Eritrea, including the National Security Agency, the Office of the President, a mass uprising, the diaspora, the business community, and former officials who retain a degree of popularity. He focused on "the majors general and the party." The senior army brass have both a political and personal (economic) stake in the status quo, he explained, and may move to form "a junta" if they felt the ruling establishment was further jeopardized by an increasingly unstable Isaias. General Filipos Woldeyohannes, being the commander of the Asmara region, would have the inside track in becoming top dog in any such junta, the source said. The Peoples Front for Democracy and Justice, Eritrea´s sole political party, remains a well-disciplined national organization with substantial grassroots clout. The party could call a national congress, the businessman said, and select a new leader (the current party chief is medically incapacitated) who would provide policy direction to the government, with or without Isaias´ consent. He described party leaders Zemihret Yohannes and Yemane Ghebreab as personable "communist ideologues" who lack political ambition. He said Defense Minister Sebhat Ephrem would be a consensus transitional pick, as he is popular among party members and soldiers, while boasting Struggle credentials equal to those of Isaias.

5. (S/NF) TOSS SOMEONE TO THE WOLVES?

The source said Isaias plans to deflect criticism by axing one or more senior insiders, possibly as soon as September. He said the party´s economic guru, Hagos Ghebrehiwet, is likely to be removed and blamed for the country´s economic freefall. This will not solve Eritrea´s problem of being run by an unbalanced despot, the source continued, adding that the elites and the masses realize that Hagos is only doing Isaias´ economic bidding.

6. (S/NF) THE ROT RUNS DEEP

The recent death of Eritrean industrialist Mohammed Saleh Hagos under mysterious circumstances has generated fear within the hard-pressed business community. The businessman, who knew the late industrialist well, said Mohammed Saleh Hagos was likely murdered due to his deep involvement in illegal economic activities of various factions within the military and National Security Agency. He went on to characterize the military and party establishment as brutal and corrupt, commenting that a political change cementing the military or party´s grip on power (by ousting or sidelining Isaias) would not necessarily provide the type of change that would be good for Eritrea, the region, or the United States. The Eritrean people "need and deserve democracy," he commented. He said if imprisoned former Defense Minister Petros Solomon were somehow freed and assumed a position of power, "the country would be safe."

7. (S) COMMENT

While the businessman is well-regarded and has access to elite circles in Asmara and beyond, his contention that powerful actors will move against Isaias because his unhinged behavior is a threat to the regime´s continuity is debatable. Twenty years ago Qaddafi was viewed by many as mentally ill, yet he remains in power. Isaias, a physically active 62 year old, is 22 years younger than Mugabe. Tyrannical leaders (Stalin, Ho Chi Minh, Castro, etc.) who helped found and/or preserve their nations often remain popular despite their seemingly irrational brutality. Isaias is a cagey, security-savvy fighter who eluded the Ethiopians for 30 years and has survived a number of assassination attempts since 1993. He is unlikely to go quietly into the night.

8. (S) COMMENT CONTINUED

Isaias suffered a severe bout of cerebral malaria and was treated in Israel in the early 1990s. The Israeli ambassador here sometimes joked that "we must have mis-prescribed the president´s meds," after particularly egregious behavior. Isaias also currently suffers from debilitating lower back pain, but otherwise appears healthy. Post would be interested in the observations of the regional psychologist or others regarding possible manifestations of Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD) in Isaias´ behavior. Post gathers (from Jon Krakauer, who has written about leaders of religious cults) that NPD is characterized by:

An exaggerated sense of self-importance, fantasies of unlimited success or power, a sense of entitlement, a lack of empathy, haughty or contemptuous behavior, a envy of others or belief that others are envious of him, belief that he is "special" and that normal rules don´t apply to him, self-righteous indignation when others are believed to be breaking rules, and an intense reaction to criticism.

All these seem to apply to Isaias Afwerki. End Comment.

MCMULLEN

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03/05/2009

SUBJECT: INCREASED CORRUPTION WITHIN THE ERITREAN POLICE

1. (C) Corruption within the Eritrean police continues to increase as economic conditions within Eritrea worsen. The police are conscripts who are paid between $5-$30 per month and many are forced to live in barracks. These police officers are unable to support their families, pay their rent, or buy food and are increasingly turning to crime to survive. A reliable embassy source told RSO the police are increasingly taking bribes to let people out of jails in Asmara, are stopping people on the street and demanding money in order to avoid being arrested, and are robbing houses and businesses during the nighttime hours. This source told RSO many Eritreans are talking about this increase in corruption. In one instance, two police officers recently went to a video store and asked the merchant to duplicate a video tape. Upon returning for their tape, they told the merchant the tape was pornographic, which is illegal in Eritrea, and told the merchant she could only avoid being arrested by paying them $600. There are also increasing reports of sexual assaults being carried out by police officers and soldiers in Asmara. Thus far, the assaults have been limited to Eritrean women during the nighttime hours in poorly lit areas.

2. (C) This criminal behavior is increasingly being condoned by the rank and file police officers and seen as the only way they can survive the tough economic conditions in Asmara. Thus far, the police have been unable to stop this increasing corruption and have responded by transferring officers caught committing crimes or imprisoning them for short amounts of time.

3. (C) Comment: The police have been unable to stop the recent increase in crime in Asmara and are plagued by a severe lack of resources. They have been unresponsive to embassy requests for investigative assistance and have refused to prosecute any persons caught committing crimes against embassy personnel. In emergency situations the only way they will respond is if the mobile patrol picks them up and brings them to the scene of the emergency. The police do not patrol embassy neighborhoods and are a poor deterrent to crime during these current economic hardships. To date, there have been no reports of Eritrean police soliciting bribes or committing crimes against any Westerners or diplomats.

MCMULLEN

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07/02/2009

SUBJECT: ISAIAS SPURNS QADHAFI´S AU INVITATION

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen

1. (C) Qadhafi sent a special envoy to Asmara to issue a personal invitation to Isaias to attend the African Union summit in Sirte, the Libyan charge d´affaires told the ambassador July 1. "The special envoy emphasized that the Sirte summit would provide Eritrea an opportunity to make its case about Somalia and other regional issues," the Libyan diplomat confided. When asked what the Eritrean response was to this special invitation, the frustrated CDA shook his head and said, "As is typical, the Eritreans gave no reply." The Eritrean deputy foreign minister verified that President Isaias is not attending the AU summit.

2. (C) When the Secretary (then FLOTUS) visited Eritrea in 1997, she lunched at the CMR with the current Eritrean ministers of justice and tourism. At a dinner July 1, the ambassador got Justice Minister Fawzia Hashim and Tourism Minister Askalu Menkerios to share warm reminisces about the visit. Askalu recalled planting a tree in the grounds of a rural clinic, and Fawzia said the luncheon with Eritrean women leaders was very special. When the ambassador mentioned that we have been trying for ten days to get a call through from the Secretary to President Isaias, both ministers stopped smiling and looked down at their plates. "Well, he has been traveling a lot lately," one of the ministers lamely offered. They appeared to be surprised and uncomfortable with the news of their president´s obstreperousness.

3. COMMENT: Isaias seems hell-bent on furthering Eritrea´s isolation; he has reportedly alienated Sudan (ref), Libya, and possibly Qatar. His narcissism may lead him to believe that his absence from Sirte will hurt Qadhafi and the AU more than Eritrea. His anger at IGAD and the AU over their criticism of Eritrea´s meddling in Somalia probably caused him to reject Qadhafi´s personal invitation. His refusal to date to speak with the Secretary could stem from his realization that the USG is not suddenly going to countenance his regime´s gross violation of human rights at home and its destabilizing actions in the region. Isaias perhaps hoped that the new U.S. administration would for some reason abandon core U.S. values and strategic concerns, while he could continue his bad behavior and garner U.S. support. Miffed MFA officials claim the USG "encouraged" IGAD and the AU to take their strong anti-Eritrea stances. The imperious Isaias regime is increasingly isolated and sulky; in tough times it reverts to the militant stubbornness that saw it through 30 years of guerrilla war. End Comment. MCMULLEN

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08/25/2009

SUBJECT: ERITREAN YOUTH: "I´M FLEEING... AND HERE´S WHY

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen

1. (C) SUMMARY: PolOff recently met with several young Eritreans who have all mentioned their plans to flee the country. The reasons range from avoiding national service to anger at the Eritrean government (GSE) for its dictatorial practices. This cable highlights the story of one particular Eritrean youth named Michael (name altered) who is fed up with the GSE. End Summary.

FAMILY BUSINESS RUINED

2. (C) Michael, a young Eritrean in his mid-20s, told PolOff he plans to leave the country now that the GSE has run his father´s business into the ground. He explained that his father once owned a fishing company that employed foreigners from Seychelles, South Africa, and Mauritius to catch exotic fish off the coast of Massawa. The business was lucrative enough to pay the foreigners´ monthly salaries of several thousand dollars in hard currency. Two years ago, the GSE told his father that he must sell half his company to the government and that he must also hire local employees at the GSE national service rate ($33/month). The GSE also forcibly removed the foreign workers from the country, leaving no one to train the newly hired local employees. The GSE continued to micromanage the business until the owner eventually decided to sell his boats and cash out his share. The GSE did not allow him to take his cash in dollars, however; he could only take nakfa and only a small percentage over a long period of time. He was also forced to sell his boats to the GSE for half price.

TWO OPTIONS TO FLEE

3. (C) The young Eritrean told PolOff he is preparing to flee the country either through legal means or illegally across the Sudan border. His father is above 65 and able to obtain an exit visa; his mother holds Italian citizenship and will not have a problem leaving the country. As for himself, his family is working with officials in the passport office to put together the documents necessary to leave the country (reftel). He stated that once the documents are put together, he will have to leave the next day to minimize the chance that someone will find the fraudulent documents in the system. If he has to leave illegally, he will use one of the Eritrean National Security Officers (ENSO), who he claimed to be the ringleaders in smuggling Eritreans to the Sudan border. The smuggler would take him from his home to a point near the border. From there, he would be transported to Sudan in an Eritrean military truck. He stated the cost at 80,000 nakfa. Paying in nakfa could only get one just across the border and further travel to Khartoum would require payment in dollars. (Note: Post is unsure if the dollar equivalent is the official $5,333 or the black market equivalent of roughly $2,000. End Note.)

4. (C) Michael stated he is among the last of his inner circle of friends left in the country. Another male friend of his in his mid-20s left several months ago for Uganda and is now working. Two others fled to Sudan. Each of those who fled utilized the aforementioned ENSO network.

A CITIZEN TORN

5. (C) Michael made it very clear that he loves his country and he loves being Eritrean, but he "hates the man in charge." He stated he often got into verbal arguments with young members of the diaspora visiting the country who have a limited perception of what life is like in Eritrea. Michael even co-founded an anti-GSE facebook group, S.O.S.- Sick of Shabeia, where he hoped to spark political dialogue among young Eritreans. Instead, he received dozens of inflammatory messages from outraged diaspora members who accused him of being a traitor. Michael is well educated (fluent in English, Tigrinya, Amharic, Italian, and French) and holds only Eritrean citizenship. Despite his talents, he does not see a future for himself in a country where the government takes what it wants at the expense of its own populace.

MCMULLEN
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06/11/2009

SUBJECT: (SE) ERITREA FEELING THE SQUEEZE ON SOMALIA

Classified By: Charge d´Affaires Melinda Tabler-Stone

1. (S) Summary. The Office of the President hastily convened two separate meetings of ambassadors on June 10 to present a white paper on the GSE position on Somalia, according to [TEXT REMOVED BY AFTENPOSTEN] (protect). [TEXT REMOVED BY AFTENPOSTEN] attended the second session comprising EU ambassadors and chaired by presidential advisor Yemane Ghebremeskel. [TEXT REMOVED BY AFTENPOSTEN] described Yemane as extremely nervous at the prospect that Ethiopia (as the GSE sees it) would succeed in getting strict sanctions imposed on Eritrea and uncomfortable discussing Eritrea´s growing predicament with Western diplomats. [TEXT REMOVED BY AFTENPOSTEN] told him Eritrea´s isolation was its own fault and even its friends were fed up with Eritrea´s behavior. End summary.

2. (S) Before convening the meeting, Yemane Ghebremeskel pulled [TEXT REMOVED BY AFTENPOSTEN] aside to vehemently deny GSE support to al Shabaab and insist the May 20 IGAD vote on sanctioning Eritrea was an unjustified, but unsurprising, attack by Ethiopia. He intimated, however, the GSE had been caught off-guard when Sudan did not mount a defense on Eritrea´s behalf. He complained IGAD had not followed proper protocol. ([TEXT REMOVED BY AFTENPOSTEN] learned from another source that President Isaias was furious Sudan had voted against Eritrea and angrily berated Sudanese security chief Saleh Gosh on his recent visit to Asmara. [TEXT REMOVED BY AFTENPOSTEN]´s source believed Sudan´s IGAD representative had been completely blindsided and had no voting instructions). [TEXT REMOVED BY AFTENPOSTEN] told Ghebremeskel to stop arguing protocol technicalities, that it was Eritrea´s fault it was losing friends and that "all of Africa is fed up with you." [TEXT REMOVED BY AFTENPOSTEN] told Yemane that by dismissing IGAD, Eritrea had lost its voice in regional affairs and [TEXT REMOVED BY AFTENPOSTEN] urged him to rethink how they engage.

4. (S) [TEXT REMOVED BY AFTENPOSTEN] was struck by the absence of Yemane´s usual abrasive manner; he seemed unstrung. His handshake was clammy, his eyes glassy, and his hands shook as he read the position paper aloud. He was, [TEXT REMOVED BY AFTENPOSTEN] said clearly shaken by the prospect, as the GSE sees it, that Ethiopia would succeed in getting stringent sanctions imposed. [TEXT REMOVED BY AFTENPOSTEN] believed Eritrea has finally realized it has alienated everyone.

5. (S) Comment: The GSE continues to blow its one-note horn on its support to al Shabaab, but this meeting is an encouraging sign it´s feeling the pressure. Now would be an opportune time to step up the dialogue, but Post recommends this be done quietly, at least in the short-run. Isaias only knows one response to public pressure-punch back-and politically he can´t be seen to be knuckling under to Ethiopia or the U.S.

TABLER-STONE
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08/21/2009

SUBJECT: ERITREA´S FRUSTRATED FORMER FIGHTERS

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen

1. (C) SUMMARY: The 95,000 veterans of Eritrea´s 30-year war for independence made huge sacrifices for their country´s independence and for the opportunity for better lives. Many "former fighters" (as they are known) are growing increasingly embittered with Isaias´ continued brutal dictatorship and failed economic policies. "For what purpose did I sacrifice my age?" asks one bitter former EPLF guerrilla who spent 16 years fighting for Eritrea´s independence. He claims that now "in Asmara, every house hates this government, but all are afraid because there are spies everywhere." END SUMMARY.

2. (C) DID WE FIGHT FOR THIS?

September 1 is a holiday marking the start in 1961 of Eritrea´s armed independence struggle. When Eritrea finally achieved liberation 30 years later, the Eritrean People´s Liberation Front (EPLF) had perhaps 95,000 men and women under arms. These "former fighters" are today esteemed by the Eritrean people and are afforded some meager privileges by the Isaias regime. Many former fighters suffered multiple wounds, sacrificed opportunities for formal education, abandoned occupations and houses, lost numerous brothers and sisters in arms, and were separated from their families for years. They are also confident and proud of the key role they played in Eritrea´s independence saga. Perhaps because of their pride, experience, and sacrifices, many feel they have a special responsibility to Eritrea; a growing number are dismayed that their dream of a free and prosperous Eritrea has turned into a nightmare.

3. (C) "WE WILL HAVE TO DO SOMETHING"

Emboff spent an hour with an extremely frustrated and embittered former fighter August 24. The former fighter ran away from home at age 15 and joined the EPLF. Trained as a mortarman, he fought against Ethiopian, Soviet, and Cuban troops and was wounded four times over the course of 16 years of combat. His commitment to Eritrea is unshakable and indisputable. "We wanted a free and democratic country where our people could live in peace and have good lives, but now look what we have." Expressing a sense of helplessness, the former fighter said, "Eritrea´s future is in America´s hands." When emboff disagreed and said that the people of Eritrea will determine their own country´s future, he nodded and said, "Then we will have to do something."

4. (C) SPIES EVERYWHERE

Emboff understood the former fighter´s comment to mean he (or former fighters collectively) would have to take direct action to change the situation. Emboff cautioned the individual that the USG does not support or endorse any such action. He also noted that it would be very dangerous for anyone to plan to move against the government. The former fighter acknowledged that the regime has spies everywhere, some even spying on their own families. While everyone hates the government, he claimed, anyone speaking out or organizing against it is quickly - at this point the former fighter made a plucking motion with his hand.

5. (C) "HOW LONG MUST WE SUFFER?"

Emboff observed that dictatorships are often surprisingly enduring and difficult to change or overthrow. The former fighter said that the Eritrean people had already suffered too long, and claimed the time was ripe for change. He said he had no knowledge of the August 13 alleged assassination attempt against President Isaias (ref A). The former fighter contended that more years of the Isaias regime would wreck the country that he and his comrades had fought so hard to create. Emboff cautioned that plotting or acting against the regime would not only put the individual at risk, but also his family, circle of friends, and his employer. He suggested the former fighter, who may already be on the Office of National Security wanted list, keep his head down, his mouth shut, and his eyes and ears open.

6. (C) COMMENT: The regime at times sends agents to make false approaches to sound out, entrap, or embarrass diplomats, although this former fighter was convincingly sincere. We have no survey or statistical data to corroborate his sense of growing disillusionment and fear, but certainly the swelling number of young Eritreans (ref B) fleeing the country attests to hard times and lack of hope in Eritrea. Many of those fleeing are not of the Struggle Generation; the former fighters, being older, may be less keen to flee and try to start life over in another country. If change does come to Eritrea, former fighters working with active duty soldiers are likely to provide the impetus and the muscle. END COMMENT.

MCMULLEN

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10/15/2009

SUBJECT: ISAIAS ZEDONG?

Classified By: Ambassdor Ronald K. McMulle

1. (C) SUMMARY: Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, who trained as a political commissar in China during the depths of the Cultural Revolution, continues to idolize Mao, remains fond of China, and governs Eritrea and its relations with the outside world based on his decades of experience as a revolutionary guerrilla leader combined with his interpretation of Maoist philosophy. END SUMMARY.

2. (C) LONG LIVE THE REVOLUTION

President Isaias made a surprise appearance at the Chinese Embassy´s reception celebrating the 60th anniversary of the Communist takeover of China. In a rare breech of Eritrea´s strictly observed protocol, Isaias interacted with the Chinese ambassador, despite not having officially received his credentials. Isaias was quickly ushered into a private dining room where he, five Chinese diplomats, and six senior Eritrean officials ate Chinese food, drank Moutai, and fondly discussed Sino-Eritrean relations. Romedan Mohamed Nur, who trained in China with Isaias in the mid-1960s, was present but largely ignored by the Eritrean president. Chinese Ambassador Li Liansheng later provided a detailed read-out to the ambassador. President Isaias mentioned ten times during the course of the evening his "42-year long relationship with China," dating from his 1967 training as a political commissar during Mao´s Cultural Revolution.

3. (C) PASS THE MOUTAI AND KEEP IT COMING

Isaias ate little during the meal but drank almost a whole bottle of high-proof Moutai, becoming visibly inebriated and sentimental as the evening drew on. He remarked repeatedly on his admiration of Chairman Mao and claimed that Mao laid the foundation for all of China´s subsequent achievements. Other Chinese diplomats tell us Isaias dislikes Deng Xiaoping because Deng attempted to undermine Mao´s legacy. Isaias avidly consumes biographies of Mao and has refused offers of books on Deng and modern China. On a monthly basis the Chinese ambassador´s chef gets a request from Isaias to send over a Chinese meal. Ambassador Li reported that Isaias watches Chinese news on television. Now 63 years old, President Isaias still plays a mean game of ping pong, according to some observers, when his chronic lower back pain permits.

4. (C) WHAT WOULD MAO DO?

While Isaias is not known to wear a bracelet embroidered with WWMD?, he clearly reveres the revolutionary guerrilla leader-cum-ruling strongman. A young man of humble origins who through ruthless determination rose to the top of a revolutionary army and defeated a stronger foe, led his country against foreign domination, and launched a wrenching social revolution, Isaias probably sees many parallels between his life and Mao´s. Isaias´ closure of Eritrea´s only university mirrors Mao´s anti-intelligentsia campaigns of the mid-1960s. His nationalization of the economy and the wholesale conscription of Eritrean youth into a "national service" of military duty and forced labor resemble some aspects of Mao´s early rule. Isaias eschews a blatant cult of personality (unlike his hero), but brooks no opposition and entertains no notions of pluralism--at least for the next four decades. While Mao´s China fought India, sent "volunteers" to Korea, and tangled with the Soviet Union over their border, Isaias has fought Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Yemen to establish his bonafides as a regional power. Ambassador Li wryly commented that Isaias idolizes his relationship with China, "perhaps because we are so far away."

5. (C) COMMENT: The influence of Maoist China on Isaias should not be overdrawn, but it is there, perhaps most importantly as a philosophical lodestone for Eritrea´s isolated and mercurial dictator. Despite China´s evolution beyond Maoist politics and economics, Isaias remains fond of the PRC. Today China provides about $12m of "no questions asked" assistance, is a source of easy-term military purchases, has invested in Eritrea´s promising mining sector, and provides political top-cover in multilateral fora. While Chinese today allow that Mao "was 70 percent correct," Isaias seems to have adopted many of his policies from the other 30 percent.

End Comment.

McMULLEN

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11/04/2009

SUBJECT: REPORTED OCTOBER ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT AGAINST PRESIDENT ISAIAS

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen 

1. (C) On 10/28/09 President Isaias narrowly missed being killed in an IED attack east of Barentu, according to a reliable embassy source. The source told RSO that Isaias visited a micro-dam project in Tessesnei and then traveled east in a motorcade to Keren. Outside of Barentu, an IED exploded, killing three soldiers in the lead vehicle. The attack left Isaias´ vehicle (the second car in the convoy) unharmed. The embassy source stated the IED was planted by disgruntled elements of the Eritrean military. Ethnic Kunamas, the main source of violence in the region, were not implicated. The source stated his girlfriend´s brother was one of the soldiers killed in the lead vehicle.

2. (C) The embassy source also stated there is growing disenchantment within the Eritrean government (GSE) and the military. Muslim Eritrean officials are upset at being marginalized by the majority Christian Tigrinya speaking makeup of the GSE. An increasing number of high ranking military officers are frustrated over the suffering caused by the policies of the Isaias administration.

3. (C) Post Comments: This report has not been corroborated or reported in the Eritrean media. A separate assassination attempt against Isaias by an Eritrean soldier was reported in 08/2009 (Reftel). Post continues to hear reports of growing anger over Eritrean government policies by the military and other elements of Eritrean society.

McMULLEN
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11/20/2009

SUBJECT: ISAIAS ADMITS FAMINE PRESENT IN ERITREA; PROMISES UNICEF ACCESS

Classified By: CDA Melinda Tabler-Stone 

1. (C) SUMMARY: In a surprising departure from his public pronouncements on the non-existence of hunger in Eritrea, President Isaias admitted to visiting UNICEF Deputy Executive Director Hilde Johnson that there is famine in the country and UNICEF´s help is needed. Johnson briefed Western diplomats on her November 17-18 visit to Eritrea and her lengthy meeting with Isaias. She said Isaias promised UNICEF total access to the country for the purposes of conducting a nutrition survey and providing blanket supplementary feeding. End summary.

2. (C) Johnson, a former minister of development from Norway, briefed Western diplomats November 18 at the close of her two-day visit. She and UNICEF staff met with President Isaias for an hour and a half, followed by a lengthy private meeting with the president. She reported she obtained Isaias´s emphatic agreement to provide UNICEF with access to the entire country for the purpose of conducting a nutrional survey and supplementary feeding for children. (UNICEF has been greatly restricted in its travel outside Asmara for over a year, suffers from the same diesel restriction as does the rest of the UN mission, and was forced by the GSE to relocate its office to less desirable premises). She also pushed Isaias for greater access to reports and statistics, which he reportedly granted. He even agreed to closer cooperation with the World Food Program. Johnson noted Yemane Ghebreab had had a fruitful discussion with WFP in Rome last month.

3. (C) Johnson characterized Isaias as highly focused and cogent during the meeting. He admitted that Eritrea´s efforts so far to combat hunger and promote child health had not been completely successful, and that he welcomed UNICEF´s help. He stated there is famine in Eritrea. He agreed the nutritional survey was necessary to see what had worked in combatting malnutrition. He even expressed a desire for regional cooperation in food security, saying he did not want to see a "single hungry Ethiopian child." Johnson also reported that GSE officials made no effort to hide cases of severe malnutrition at a referral hospital in Massawa and were grinning widely to hear their president agree to cooperate with UNICEF.

4. (C) Comment. Johnson emphasized repeatedly her long personal association with Isaias and may have heard what she wanted to hear. But possibly Isaias is truly worried about conditions in the country and his flagging popularlity. His sincerity and willingness to accept UNICEF help will be proven only if diesel fuel and travel permits are forthcoming.

Tabler-Stone
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12/10/2009

SUBJECT: ERITREA´S SQUABBLING COLONELS, FLEEING FOOTBALLERS, FRIGHTENED LIBRARIANS

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1.4(d)

1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Things are getting worse and worse in Eritrea. The regime is facing mounting international pressure for years of malign behavior in the neighborhood. Human rights abuses are commonplace and most young Eritreans, along with the professional class, dream of fleeing the country, even to squalid refugee camps in Ethiopia or Sudan. The economy continues to sink; exports for 2008 totaled only $14m and vital hard-currency remittances have fallen to 43% of the 2005 level. "He is sick," said one leading Eritrean businessman, referring to President Isaias´ mental health. "The worse things get, the more he tries to take direct control--it doesn´t work." The following three vignettes highlight the current state of affairs in Eritrea. END SUMMARY.

2. (C) THE DEFENSE MINISTER AND THE COLONELS

Defense Minister Sebhat Efrem convoked army colonels in late November for a three-day conference on professional and career issues. On the second day a serious row reportedly broke out among the conferees; the acrimony rose so high that General Sebhat cancelled the rest of the conference and sent the quarreling colonels back to their units. The bone of contention? Perceived differences in the quality of the villas (often confiscated from the original owners) given to the colonels by the regime to maintain their allegiance.

4. (C) FRIGHTENED LIBRARIANS

Eritreans are fearful of associating with foreigners, as they are often grilled afterwards by security thugs. Post´s PD programs are under pressure from the Office of National Security and the Ministry of Information (although MFA has been somewhat helpful). Post has three American Corners in public libraries in provincial towns. The one in Massawa has been closed for six months, supposedly due to building maintenance problems (the main librarian has fled the country). In Dekemhare the local National Security chief ordered the librarian to close the American Corner; he complied. Only the American Corner in Keren operates normally. Last week the Keren librarian was in Asmara; when the ambassador invited her for a chat, she declined, as she didn´t want to fall under increased scrutiny. She had a check to pick up for some Corner expenses, but was too scared to even step foot inside the embassy compound to get her money.

5. (S) COMMENT: The brittle Isaias regime is one pistol shot away from implosion. However, Isaias is clever, very good at operational security, and two decades younger than Mugabe. While many in Eritrea long for change, few are in a position to effect it. END COMMENT.

McMullen

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02/17/2010

SUBJECT: THE ISAIAS REGIME´S SECURITY POSTURE

Classified By: Amb. Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1.4(d)

1. (C) 7,000 PRESIDENTIAL GUARDS

Eritrea boasts one of the largest standing armies in Africa and is among the most militarized societies in the world. To protect himself and his regime from assassination, coup d´etat, army mutiny, or a foreign commando strike, Isaias has created three separate Presidential Guard units of about 2,000 troops each, according to a well-connected Eritrean businessman.

-- These elite solders get extra pay, have modern equipment, and receive specialized training. Most are currently stationed in or near Asmara, including a sizeable group lodged about 800 yards from the DCM´s residence.

-- The three units are nominally led by Major General Filipos, but in reality Isaias personally commands each one. In addition, Presidential Guardsmen also serve as jailors for the G-15 (senior Eritrean officials arrested in 2001).

-- Isaias´ right-hand man is Colonel Tesfaldat Habteselassie, who commands the 70-man presidential bodyguard detachment.

-- The source also reported that the head of Eritrea´s Office of National Security, General Abraha Kassa, suffers from a bad heart and comes to his office irregularly.

2. (C) 11,000 TROOPS SENT TO ASSAB

In early February the Eritrean military sent 11,000 troops from the Asmara area to Assab, according to a reliable Arab contact, supposedly to deter any Ethiopian thrust to seize the port of Assab "now that Eritrea is weakened by UN sanctions." Other observers speculate the troop movement may be related to the reported February 15 Afar rebel attack in southeastern Eritrea in which fighters of the Red Sea Afar Democratic Organization (RSADO) allegedly killed or wounded 37 Eritrean troops. (RSADO, thought to be supported by the Ethiopian government, has previously issued seemingly exaggerated claims of victories against Eritrean forces.) The businessman cited above says even Presidential Guardsmen have recently been heard in bars grousing about President Isaias, that Isaias is "completely alone," and that ordinary soldiers from the Red Sea littoral are restive due to reports of starvation in their home areas.

McMullen

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