“It’s the regime, stupid”

I have basic understanding of the overall doctrine of “Containment” as it pertains to US’ –Soviet foreign policy.  The overarching strategy of “Containment” crafted by  George Kennan under the pen name of “X “ was  a must read for  those who want to have any sense knowledge about US foreign policy in dealing with Soviet Union. The very essence of the Cold War was conducted, on the US side, under the overall umbrella of this paradigm. Wearing down the Soviet Union and eventually bringing a system change was the bottom line of the “containment” doctrine. History has given its verdict. Although it took a long time George Kennan’s thinking was vindicated when the Berlin Wall came down and the so-called Socialist Camp imploded.

After reading Mr. Kristol’s opinion I made an effort to contact Mr. Reiss to get information as to where the whole article was posted in order to understand his new approach to dealing with North Korea. Mr. Reiss was generous with his time and assured me that the full article will come out, hopefully, in the next edition of The American Interest. About six months later the article was posted on the January /February 2010 edition. It was worth the waiting.  I believe that the strong argument he elucidates for imposing a “Hard Containment” on the Pyongyang tyrannical regime has implication and application to other rogue regimes like the one we are dealing with in Eritrea.

I am not sure if the concept of “Hard Containment” is a further development of Kennan’s original concept. I leave that to the experts to dissect and elucidate.   What is relevant is that it makes a valid and grounded argument for an enhanced sanction –a potent sanction that will eventually help bring an end to the rogue regimes. This argument is made by a very seasoned thinker who is very familiar with the American political process. More importantly he is making the statement at a time when President Obama’s publicly articulated policy to positively engage even the worst governments has been misread by rogue regimes in Iran, N. Korea, Venezuela and Eritrea and is facing an abrupt dead end. Mr. Reiss’ shift in approach it is not an impetuous conclusion. It is grounded in years of observation and rich public experience. It is valid and very relevant.

America’s new president has only been in power for a year. In the next year or two, I feel that, hard facts will force him to move his foreign policy to the center and maybe even to right of center.  In other words his idealism will be tempered by the reality and he will be more pragmatic. In the real world there are evils like the Kim Jong-il, Ahmadinejad, Chavez and Isaiais. You cannot wish them away or talk them into rational thinking.  They consider every civilized attempt to engage them in a civil discourse as the West’s systemic weakness.  Since they have no institutionalized constraints, the tyrants, consider the diversity in policy options by the West as fragmentation and inability to master any sense of decisiveness. This is their world view. This is their distorted reality.

No amount of generous positive thinking by leaders like Obama can convince them of the value of “constructive engagement” unless it is backed by military and diplomatic muscle. Wishful thinking in Washington DC or Brussels (EU) cannot change this. That is why Mr. Reiss’ presentation makes sense. Short of direct war, the maximum pressure should be put on these kinds of tyrants to give the world a respite and more importantly give the people living under their yolk a chance to fight back for their freedom.

I “borrowed” the title from Mr. Reiss prolific article for it succulently summarizes the truth: The problem is not with the challenges created by the rogue regimes- the rogue regimes are the problem. Let us stop kidding ourselves and not waste inordinate amount of time and energy trying to remedy the “effect” instead of dealing with the source of the problem. The “hard containment’s” should be deployed in a way so that it will create the most favorable objective and subjective conditions for turning the nations under the rouge tyrant’s into a democratic polity.  If Kennan’s “ containment “ took two generation plus to bring down the Soviet Union a well organized and forcefully applied hard containment coupled with smart sanction and energized opposition and civic activities should expedite the demise of the smaller rogue  regimes. US does not have the luxury of playing hide and seek with irrational regimes that are hell bent to destroy regional and global security.

The decision by the UNSC to impose a smart sanction on the irresponsible and adventurous Isaias regime was a welcomed half measure. Given the need to build a broad consensus in order to pass a resolution of this magnitude the fact that all African nations and the Security Council came to the same conclusion by itself is historic enough. We should welcome the sanction without any hesitation and continue to call and work for its full enforcement. The sanction is demanding a modest behavior modification and not a change in character. Like a perennial alcoholic who is promising to give up drinking one more time, under the most positive scenario, the Eritrean tyrant might make a modest attempt to mitigate the full impact of the smart sanction by fulfilling the demands of the sanction. But under the realistic scenario this is unlikely.  What applies for Kim Jong-il goes for Isaias as well: He will squeeze the people, prop up his regime and try to frustrate the sanction with all means under his disposal. UN, US and EU will soon have another opportunity to shade their unrealistic perception about the Eritrean regime. The smart sanction is at the transitional stage. Six months from now the UNSC will have to strengthen and deepen the sanction.

The central agenda of the Asmara regime is to orchestrate a government change in Mogadishu and Addis Ababa and destroy Western influence in the Horn of Africa region. To officially accept the sanction will mean to shelf or abandon these agendas. Since there are no institutions in Eritrea that can conduct open and spirited discussion about the why and how of the sanction, the decision to vehemently reject it and continue the same destructive trajectory is in one man’s hand: in Isaias Afeworki’s hand. He has gone on the record, be it in a rambling manner, stating the sanction was a US conspiracy against Eritrea and the rest of the world who voted for it is a US’s puppet. He is digging his heels, ala Fidel Castro, to defy the sanction. 

He has also initiated a contrived campaign to confuse the Diaspora Eritrean Community by deploying its handpicked (legally unregistered) agents all over Europe and USA trying convince the Diaspora to interpret  the narrowly focused smart sanction as a wholesale sanction imposed on the people of Eritrea instead of the top leadership of the rouge regime- the political apparatchik, the military leadership, the managers of the PFDJ controlled businesses, security personnel who are helping and training terrorists in Somalia, etc.

The regime under the guidance and direction of its embassy personnel is also organizing a fundraising through PFDJ controlled local “committees” all over Europe and USA –without any transparency, accountability and more importantly compliance with the local and national fundraising laws dealing with a regime under international sanction. This underground process has served the regime well for years and now is being primed to facilitate as a circuit breaker for the sanction.  Governments who have the obligation of implementing the UNSC smart sanction have a duty to “follow the money” and make sure all relevant laws are complied with.

The fact that the new American administration had to relearn everything that the Bush administration already knew about the Eritrean regime is disheartening but maybe a necessary anti-dot for the expanded optimism that Mr. Obama brought to rebuild American’s tarnished image abroad. The optimism needs a clearly stated caveat: that under particular circumstances the new administration will not shrink from deploying all of the power and influence of the superpower to deal decisively with unrepentant tyrants. The outright rejection of the offer to conduct a civilized discussion by Isaias should have given the Obama administration a clue, as if it needs one. The semi-apologetic statement made by Dr. Rice, immediately after the UNSC sanction- 1907 was passed, underscores the knee jerk approach of the American administration in dealing with the Eritrean regime.  The opportunity should have been used to stress the UNSC’s unconditional demand and stress to the regime that it has only one option:  implement the sanction.

The lack of decisiveness by the American administration means that Eritrean Americans have to refocus and expand their interaction from the executive branch to the legislative. The massive suffering of our people has not generated a potent rebuffing from the administration. If the new administration wants to proactively contain the expansion of elements like Al-Shabaab and Al-Qaeda in the Horn of Africa it has to forcefully address the role of the state actor who is investing everything to destabilize the region. With Yemen added to the list as a country targeted by terrorists and Al-Shabaab openly declaring allegiance to Bin Laden one will think the US administration will be more assertive and proactive in containing and setting the ground work for fundamentally changing the equation in Eritrea.

To the US, UK and France the conclusion “it’s the regime, stupid” should be obvious enough that they should come up with a contingent plan to enforce a “hard containment” to augment the smart sanction. Neither Russia nor China will assume this responsibility. Isaias’ -the revolutionary anti-imperialists- misguided effort to destroy the West’s influence in the Horn of Africa might, in a very twisted way, serve the former superpower and the rising superpower desire to curtail America’s influence in the region. If so it will be a myopic posture. The vacuum will only be filled by more fanatic elements who have are willing to chop hands for stealing and stone women to death for supposedly having an affair.  That will not serve Russia’s or China’s long term interest. The Horn of Africa’s security is the interest of all powers that need peace. Targeted sanction by itself will not transform the behavior or character of the Eritrean regime. Moving forward USA, UK and France to work hard to convince the two powers try to get their tacit support for “hard containment”. 

Almost for two decades the people of Eritrea have been witnessing their beautiful country slowly descending into an African North Korea. The world seems finally making a modest effort to understand. Africa has come to grip with the reality. Eritrea’s neighbors, based on direct experience, have drawn a sober conclusion. The United Nation is beginning to grasp an aspect of the overall problem: Just an aspect of it.

The PFDJ crowed keeps diminishing the true definition of nationalism to attending meaningless festivals, collecting slogan adorned t-shirts and dancing until the sun comes up. It does not want to feel or think. A generation is fleeing and the crude “president” feels they are going on a picnic. Opportunists are adding to their frequent fliers point by zigzagging across Europe and America trying to convince us the problem is not the brutal tyrant but the rest of the world: Enough with the diversion. Enough with the self-deception – It is time to grow up and assume the unavoidable responsibility. The truth is simple: “It’s is the regime, stupid”. It is time for smart sanction, hard containment and focused and concentrated mass resistance both at home and abroad. It is time to say Enough is Enough.

Disclaimer: this article presents my opinion and only my personal opinion.