Museveni Stamps Over Issias

President Issias has arrived in Kampala for a three-day visit and already held talks with his Ugandan counterpart, President Museveni. The fact that the Ugandan President has extended his invitation to President Issias at a time when the UN Security Council is deliberating for a possible tightening of sanctions has raised so many questions. Ethiopia and Eritrean opposition are nervous that what Mr. Museveni is doing is appeasement that only helps Eritrea’s strongman to cling to power a little longer. Observers from the host country think that their president is playing a growing diplomatic role in bringing the “lost sheep to the fold.” The other speculation has President Museveni as a messenger of the IGAD leaders to deliver a stark warning before one more blow to the visiting President came at the UN level. Ethiopia already hinted that Museveni’s dealing has nothing to do with the Horn of Africa’s regional body. Mr. Bereket Simon said that the whole current endeavor by the Eritrean President in Uganda is a bluff. So what exactly does Museveni want to achieve by inviting President Issias to his turf?

Museveni and President Issias have always attracted each other as they share similar views and parallels. Both believe that, in countries like theirs, democracy and political parties should be checked and discouraged as they can easily break down into regional and ethnic lines. The two presidents also have a philosophy that, beyond your borders and deep in the neighborhood, showing strength and putting everyone in line is the best way to build power and respect both at home and across the region. This being their theory, they have always been involved in regional conflicts under self-serving pretext and megalomaniac attitude. President Museveni wants to be the King Maker of the Great Lakes Region while President Issias dreamt to be Alexander the Great of the Horn. Although extreme comparisons, both extended their stay in power by one doctoring and bending the constitution while the other totally threw the Law of the Land to the dust bin. The 1995 Ugandan Constitution limits tenure to serve as a President to two terms. President Museveni, however, changed the constitution through parliament manipulations so that he could run in 2006. The same year President Issias reluctantly allowed the ratification of the Eritrean constitution to completely throw it out the next year.

Attracted by these and, perhaps by the common political flamboyant behavior that is at the core of their respective personalities, Mr Museveni was President Issias’ pick to counterbalance and outflank Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia after the Ethiopian and Eritrean border conflict entered into a stalemate. There are ample hints that indicate their relations went cold and froze after President Issias showed contempt and disrespect to an admiring Museveni who the former found to be un-coachable and uncooperative to push his diplomatic ploy against Prime Minister Meles. Nowhere is Ugandan President’s frustration about this clearer than his communication with Assistant Secretary Frazer that Wikileaks made public. Here is how Wikileaks carried the conversation:

Museveni said President Isaias was preoccupied with trying to unseat Meles. That was all Isaias talked about, yet Museveni observed that Meles did not appear to be in any less control of Ethiopia despite Isaias' actions. Museveni told A/S Frazer that Isaias needed to be talked to by the members of the U.N. Security Council who carry a big stick. Museveni claimed that Eritrea continued to infiltrate weapons into Somalia and said that Isaias needed to be intimidated. Museveni argued that the UNSC should consider a blockade or sanctions if Eritrea does not listen.

Mr. Museveni’s wish has come true now. President Issias is intimidated. He is returning to Kampala as a weak, reclusive president who takes any little diplomatic boost with no pride to save. As delusional as he is, he could calculate to use this offer as a diplomatic escape tunnel through which he can line other east African leaders behind him slowly to eventually outflank Meles and the West on his way out of sanctions. If things happen Issias’ way, a new attempt to create anti-West African block will replace his government’s futile support to neighboring insurgents.  In a statement Mr. Issias gave to the press he said he is happy and have learned a lot from Mr. Museveni – which is uncharacteristic of him.

Whereas in Kampala, what all the unrolling of red carpets, the 21 gun-salute and the firm hand-shake says is more about President Museveni’s achievements in taming the Eritrean “renegade” President and lecturing him on how to behave his size than respect to his guest. The body language was all telling – Museveni is dominating. Almost every picture that has been realized from Kampala so far vividly shows that the Ugandan President has a moment of the Treaty of Versailles.

This being the case, Mr Museveni looks like he is positioning himself to win one more trophy before tampering with Ugandan constitution for one last time. The trophy will be his if his forces can help Somalia emerge free from the grips of Al-shabab and transition into a stable functioning state. If President Museveni convinces President Issias to pull his hands from Somalia and Ugandan peace keepers deployed in Mogadishu broker and dictate peace their way, there is no doubt that he will be able to discredit criticisms at home while at the same time boosting his diplomatic states in the region, temporarily though.

But he is doing this at a greatest risk. According to James Mugume, permanent secretary at the Ugandan foreign ministry, Uganda will be “looking at issues on how Eritrea wants to avoid the comprehensive sanctions," If he tries to pacify, appease and save President Issias for such a trophy, he will pretty soon find himself in a ditch with Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia and the West.

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